Any thoughts on who’ll win the NH Republican primary?
In-law in NH:
I’ve been liking Romney. He’s been sending out the type of message that resonates with the masses and that should work against Obama’s weak points through the rest of his term. He’s got the credentials, and Obama being in means he shouldn’t get dinged because of his religion. Trouble lies in his issue vacillation and walking the tightrope on Romneycare, both of which I think he can tackle if played right.
Gingrich and Paul are the smartest, but totally unpresidential.
Pawlenty, Huntsman, Perry, and Johnson get props for having the governor experience, but only Pawlenty sticks out at the moment and the others will fade quickly if they don’t do something immediately. I get the sense Pawlenty lacks the balls (or has too much midewestern grace) for a presidential fight, but might be seen on the Romney ticket in 2012 if a southerner isn’t chosen. Pawlenty and Perry are more likely to get the conservative nod, though.
Santorum – meh.
I would have thought Bachmann too divisive, inexperienced, and Palinesque, but her performance here in NH was really good and now my list is down to two impediments. She may rise even more, but I don’t see her as electable.
If Perry enters it could tip the balance a bit. If Palin enters – hahahahahaha.
At this time, I’m guessing Romney for NH, too early to tell for Iowa, and Pawlenty for South Carolina.
2. (was 1. when I started writing) Nearly agree….Romney.
Actually he’s almost turning Romneycare into a slight plus as it’s forced him into an expert refutaton of Obamacare and he’s admitting it was far from perfect in Mass. The mandate element sucks, but at least it’s not unconstitutional in a state.
(That point about federal unconstitutionality may soon be adjudicated against Obamacare by a liberal federal court).
Romney’s endorsement of Anthropogenic Global Warming may turn out more of a policy problem.
1. Perry…..formidable. He’s a multiple election winner and quite attractive to Hispanics. He has by far the best record in government and he brings the Tea Party, which is the most dynamic force in US politics. If ‘it’s the economy, stupid’, then he should beat Romney because Mass is an insignificant flea-dropping and Texas is a gigantic cowboy hat. The line that Texas has created 38% of all new jobs over the last 2 years is an election winner at every level.
3. Pawlenty….boring wimp, cap and trade. Tried to knife Romney with ‘Obamneycare’ then lacked the balls to run with it face-to-face. He’s calm and fluent on audio, but smiles wanly and swallows nervously under pressure. Bad optics + boring = nope.
4. Bachmann….surprised me. Her biggest negative for me is that she looks cross-eyed straight-on.
Her personal qualities are sterling, she embodies the Tea Party, she’s excellent on economics, she’s overtly intelligent. Her tax-lawyer background is entirely relevant. As for experience….5 children 23 foster children, run a small business, fought tough elections…I think she’s experienced. House of Reps is far more where it’s at than Senate these days.
5. The rest….nowhere, tho I like Cain and Ron Paul is right on everything domestically. I think history is moving in the direction of his ideas. Maybe Rand Paul will be President one day.
6. Palin….my favorite. Don’t tell me she’s stupid, she’s not. Nor is she unelectable….she’s now battle-hardened and the media’s contempt plays to her advantage. The recent shenanigans with the emails show how afraid of her the left is. She’s by far the most adept with social media and is such a fine contrast to Obama that any electorate that prefers optimism, fertility and patriotism would prefer her to him once she escapes the media’s filter. That said if Perry’s in and Bachmann’s doing well, then it gets crowded on the right.
Obama ……looks tired and old and weak. There’s noone who wouldn’t beat him. Anthony Weiner would beat him. When a politician says he’s ok with one-term, you know he’s through. That’s too bad because I’ve been looking forward to [left-wing nephew] paying for my medicare for the rest of his life.