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Idea association, quick..

LBJ – Vietnam
Nixon – Watergate
Carter – fiasco in Iran
Obama – first black….America downgraded

After the GOP debate in NH

Me:

Any thoughts on who’ll win the NH Republican primary?

In-law in NH:

I’ve been liking Romney. He’s been sending out the type of message that resonates with the masses and that should work against Obama’s weak points through the rest of his term. He’s got the credentials, and Obama being in means he shouldn’t get dinged because of his religion. Trouble lies in his issue vacillation and walking the tightrope on Romneycare, both of which I think he can tackle if played right.

Gingrich and Paul are the smartest, but totally unpresidential.

Pawlenty, Huntsman, Perry, and Johnson get props for having the governor experience, but only Pawlenty sticks out at the moment and the others will fade quickly if they don’t do something immediately. I get the sense Pawlenty lacks the balls (or has too much midewestern grace) for a presidential fight, but might be seen on the Romney ticket in 2012 if a southerner isn’t chosen. Pawlenty and Perry are more likely to get the conservative nod, though.

Santorum – meh.

I would have thought Bachmann too divisive, inexperienced, and Palinesque, but her performance here in NH was really good and now my list is down to two impediments. She may rise even more, but I don’t see her as electable.

If Perry enters it could tip the balance a bit. If Palin enters – hahahahahaha.

At this time, I’m guessing Romney for NH, too early to tell for Iowa, and Pawlenty for South Carolina.

Me:

2. (was 1. when I started writing) Nearly agree….Romney.

Actually he’s almost turning Romneycare into a slight plus as it’s forced him into an expert refutaton of Obamacare and he’s admitting it was far from perfect in Mass. The mandate element sucks, but at least it’s not unconstitutional in a state.
(That point about federal unconstitutionality may soon be adjudicated against Obamacare by a liberal federal court).

Romney’s endorsement of Anthropogenic Global Warming may turn out more of a policy problem.

1. Perry…..formidable. He’s a multiple election winner and quite attractive to Hispanics. He has by far the best record in government and he brings the Tea Party, which is the most dynamic force in US politics. If ‘it’s the economy, stupid’, then he should beat Romney because Mass is an insignificant flea-dropping and Texas is a gigantic cowboy hat. The line that Texas has created 38% of all new jobs over the last 2 years is an election winner at every level.

3. Pawlenty….boring wimp, cap and trade. Tried to knife Romney with ‘Obamneycare’ then lacked the balls to run with it face-to-face. He’s calm and fluent on audio, but smiles wanly and swallows nervously under pressure. Bad optics + boring = nope.

4. Bachmann….surprised me. Her biggest negative for me is that she looks cross-eyed straight-on.
Her personal qualities are sterling, she embodies the Tea Party, she’s excellent on economics, she’s overtly intelligent. Her tax-lawyer background is entirely relevant. As for experience….5 children 23 foster children, run a small business, fought tough elections…I think she’s experienced. House of Reps is far more where it’s at than Senate these days.

5. The rest….nowhere, tho I like Cain and Ron Paul is right on everything domestically. I think history is moving in the direction of his ideas. Maybe Rand Paul will be President one day.

And……ta da….

6. Palin….my favorite. Don’t tell me she’s stupid, she’s not. Nor is she unelectable….she’s now battle-hardened and the media’s contempt plays to her advantage. The recent shenanigans with the emails show how afraid of her the left is. She’s by far the most adept with social media and is such a fine contrast to Obama that any electorate that prefers optimism, fertility and patriotism would prefer her to him once she escapes the media’s filter. That said if Perry’s in and Bachmann’s doing well, then it gets crowded on the right.

Obama ……looks tired and old and weak. There’s noone who wouldn’t beat him. Anthony Weiner would beat him. When a politician says he’s ok with one-term, you know he’s through. That’s too bad because I’ve been looking forward to [left-wing nephew] paying for my medicare for the rest of his life.

Dear Congressman Weiner

Dear Congressman Weiner,

I loved the photo you sent… “Large. Cape. Tights.” Phew! I loved the other photos too. Quite the acrobat. I’m so aroused right now that I want to confess. I am not in fact a mere nubile female. Get this: I’m a hairy-arsed, amply tattooed, amply endowed, amply qualified agent of The Axis of Evil. Iran, North Korea, Belgium…specifics don’t matter.

Please explain to me how stupid I am because I don’t understand why Americans worry that your interwebthing could be hacked and get you blackmailed. What is this ‘hacking’ hocuspocus ? I just enrolled on Twitter with a picture of Princess Carrie Fisher and fished for you. Capiche? No hacking, just fishing. So easy. My colleagues do the same with all your politicians. Some lasting friendships have occurred.

Anyhoot here’s the thing. I need some information….

Why Sarah Palin will run

1. It’s her duty.

2. There’ll never be a better time. If Romney beats Obama, there’ll be no more chance for 8 years. Otherwise the 2016 field may include Christie, Jeb, Perry, Rubio, Ryan and West which is much more formidable than Romney, Pawlenty, Cain and Bachmann. Of course Perry may jump in 2012 for the same reason.

3. Four more years of punditry won’t add burnish.

4. She’s a fighter. If she backs away from this fight then the MSM has won by default. They pronounced that she’s stupid, a loser, a bad mother, a has-been, and they would have won and she would have lost. Fighters win or lose in the ring.

5.

There is a tide in the affairs of men.
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat,
And we must take the current when it serve

Who’ll be the GOP nominee?

Tour d’ horizon – the GOP field for 2012.

Romney
Prohibitive favourite. Looks the part, cool under pressure, executive, impeccable bio, 2nd last time, money likes him, Huckabee out.

The big strike against him is that he’s not a visceral conservative, he’s a visceral technocrat. I don’t want another ‘compassionate conservative’ to maintain the dyke against the socialist tsunami. I want America moved up from swampland to the high ground of The City On The Hill. That means originalist Supreme Court judges and a Pauline conversion to domestic policies that observe the plain meaning of the Constitution to limit government. Romney will say a lot of the right things, but his record doesn’t convince ideological conservatives like me. That said, good executives learn from experience, so conservatives will certainly rally to him versus Obama.

Pawlenty/Daniels
Mostly good records but lacking charisma. Calvin Coolidge, perhaps the best President in last 100 years, was charismatically anti-charismatic, but he was appointed in the first instance. Maybe the time is right for the contrast between Daniels and Obama to work in Daniels’ favour. Obama’s supposed charisma was stale and phony in 2008. Now it stinks. But I just don’t see Daniels outwitting Romney, especially since his social conservatism is in question too.

Cain
Has a lot going for him and I liked his humility when asked about Afghanistan, tho that also speaks to a certain shallowness on policy. He’s a mostly credible conservative and a happy-ish warrior. I could see the Tea Party coalescing around him. Possible weaknesses include political inexperience, support for affirmative action, support for TARP, matiness toward the Federal Reserve of which he was once a honcho, cancer history, lack of a base. VP?

Bachmann
Fine, brave, impressive conservative. I don’t find her telegenic (wrong contact lenses?) and I do find her somewhat boring. But, by God, she’s right….on Obama, on Global Warming, on health care, on entitlements.

Perry
Strong executive record, much stronger than Romney’s for a conservative governor. You could see him teaming up with Giuliani (whom he endorsed in ’08) to make a broadband but convincing conservative ticket. Giuliani would be the supporting act on that poster since he lacks the hunger for the primary fight.

A big strike against Perry is his attempt to mandate the HPV vaccine…very strange.

Paul
Well Paul is my man on domestic policy and the political landscape has favourable contours for his big issues. The defence of Israel is a touchstone for me, and I find Paul jejune on the Islamist threat in general, so I’m stuck there, but Paul is so right and so thought through on most matters domestic that he could be a major influence in this cycle.

Sitting it out….Christie and Jeb
Both these guys are obviously ‘Presidentiabile’. They both have incomplete Tea Party credentials, Christie worse than Jeb, but are both gifted politicians and impressive men. Christie is a neophyte governor for now and knows it, but Jeb brings so much to the table that it seems wrong that he’s not running just because he’s a Bush. He brings electoral success in a swing state, Hispanics, a track record, unflappability, likability, credibility, gravitas. I think I’d draft him if Romney polls weakly against Obama.

Palin
My favourite because I admire her courage and her biography. I’m not a great fan of her interview style – she speaks too quickly and her verbiage can be awkward – but she’s good on the stump, is more charismatic than any of the others. Her written exegeses on matters like quantitative easing and healthcare are first rate and she has a knack for setting the agenda with a phrase – ‘palling around with terrorists’, ‘death panels’.

The only strike against Palin is that she’s polarizing. There are plenty of clever-stupid, wishy-washy liberals and independents who’d vote for anyone than Palin because they think she’s stupid. That’s often a reaction against her obviously genuine religious faith – in contrast to Obama’s religious faith. Secular atheists and statists prefer a phony, more fool them. I’m definitely biased and liable to egosyntonic thinking about Palin; I want to see the liberal intelligentsia and faux conservatives feel the agony of a Palin win, but I do think that Palin would wipe the floor with Obama once a campaign got going. She has charisma, she has policy, she’s on the side of optimism and life, she’s inoculated against further poison from the MSM. The Church of Snide grows old. When the likes of Maher or Stewart or Matthews or Fey sneer at Palin now it probably works for her. I hope she gets in the race. Romney/Palin could work for me as a practical compromise to unite conservatives and blue-bloods.

One for the future…Nimrata Nikki Randhawa Haley
Nikki Haley‘s forthright comments on the NLRB stitch-up of Boeing and on Gingrich’s back-stab on Ryan have raised her national profile in the last few days. She’s my tip for the future.

Not too posh to push*

The future Queen at Waitrose yesterday:

* “Too posh to push” = English English medical symptom indicating birth by Caesarian operation.

I, Birther, redux

A quick post to react to Obama’s production of his birth certificate:

1. It’s an obvious fake.

2. Only kidding.

3. This shows that Obama was born on US territory.

4. Kudos, Donald.

5. Good that this frees the President’s time for tonight’s interview with Oprah.

The Undocumented President

Obvious, but needs to be said:

1. This issue has traction. It would have a lot more traction were it fairly reported.

2. It is Obama’s duty to show his birth certificate. Only 38% of the people are sure that he is “a natural born citizen” according to a poll from left-leaning USA Today/Gallup. The objection that nothing will satisfy the birthers is a crock; a President can’t gain democratic consent when only 38% of “we, the people” are sure that he’s eligible for office. Obama should produce his birth certificate as did McCain. That would satisfy Trump and me as to his place of birth.

3. The other villains in this piece are the conservative politicians and pundits who failed to tackle this issue or look at the evidence objectively – Coulter, Palin, Bachmann, Beck, Allahpundit, Rove and many others. Contrast Andrew McCarthy and Sean Hannity. Trump, for all his faults, has come at this like a bat out of hell and done a great service to America.

4. Mainstream conservatives should now make an issue of Obama’s almost total lack of documentation including his weird possession of a social security number of a dead man, whether his studies were funded on the basis that he was still an Indonesian, whether he travelled to Pakistan as an Indonesian.

Like Trump, I’m fully aware that leaving open the plotline that Obama is an unqualified fake sounds like crazy talk, but it’s Obama who’s hiding the evidence, not those who ask to see it. This issue isn’t going to go away. The guy is a documented promiscuous liar, so ‘trust, but verify’ is pretty generous in the circumstances.

Ullapool and beyond

I sometimes bunk off from London to NW Scotland for a few days. It’s 6-7 hours door-to-door from Central London via Gatwick, Inverness and hire car to Torridon or Ullapool or Lochinver. Here’s a slideshow from a couple of weeks ago:

Whoopi meet toupee

As part of my mission to persuade a sceptic that the issue has traction note this:

My wife is starting a new job, we will be getting new insurance because of it. We are REQUIRED to provide not only our marriage certificate but the long form copies of the birth certificates of both of our children.

Having to produce a birth certificate is not an irregular occurrence for the average person so when Trump says this to the general public, they understand it.
……
On Morning Joe just now Joe Scarborough nailed it pointing out that the liberal audience of the View applauded when Trump said this. If the White House doesn’t see that this is trouble then they ought to. And the attempt to describe Trump as “going birther”, Mika’s disgust and the exiling of the segment to the “News you can’t use” segment doesn’t change the fact that an awful lot of people saw him say it and heard that applause.

While on we’re on the subject of toupees, here’s a ditty I composed 20 years ago to annoy a friend:

TOUPEE OR NOT TOUPEE

Toupee or not toupee: that is the question:
Whether ’tis nobblier on the mind to coiffure
One’s bonce with curls of an outrageous rug
Or to take ointments ‘gainst the curse of slaphead
And by anointing end it ? To shine: to gleam;
No more; and with a mop to strike a pose
Against the moulting of a thousand natural locks
Which make a hairdo, ’tis a flocculation
Devoutly to be swished. To dye, to streak:
To streak: perchance brylcreem: ay, there’s the rub.

Shakespeare of course understood the problem, but flaunted his disability:


To be, or not to be: that is the question:
Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles,
And by opposing end them? To die: to sleep;
No more; and by a sleep to say we end
The heart-ache and the thousand natural shocks
That flesh is heir to, ’tis a consummation
Devoutly to be wish’d. To die, to sleep;
To sleep: perchance to dream: ay, there’s the rub.